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New Yorkers will discover who will be their new city leader this election day, in a race that will decide who governs and defends the country's largest city at a moment when the former president has threatened to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to the former president's power moves, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to voters' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce the party's current model of considered, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A New York rejection of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani personally. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to the capital and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had known him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has encountered difficulties in recent days, after footage emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a DSA gathering in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd